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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

However this year's field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans ascending together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still