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Mounting apprehensions exist over the possibility of military engagement between Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has triggered a heated verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in 2023 that his government's sea access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have regularly been difficult. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a border war started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing entry to the sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "through military action".

Eritrea's Answer to the Threats

Despite continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access labeling it "hazardous" and a "harmful plan" of "irredentism" – a policy of claiming back previous domains.

Government spokespeople cautioned on mid-September that attempts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Ground

There have been no reports of major military movements in the border areas between the neighboring states.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast training completions of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The leader of personnel division of the military, General Hachalu, recently said in an discussion that the military was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Past Origins of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this agreement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict ensued, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, leading to conflict in 1998.

Though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries stayed at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two agreed to a announcement that the hostilities was finished – a decision that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

But relations have subsequently deteriorated again.